Daily Backlog Inflow (Control Chart)

Not every busy day is a problem. This visual tells you the difference. By establishing a rolling baseline of normal backlog inflow and marking the days where inflow significantly exceeded that baseline, it separates routine variation from genuine anomalies.

A spike is not just a high number — it is a number that is high relative to what your team normally handles. A day with 23 incoming issues when the baseline is 7 is a different situation from the same 23 issues on a team that normally handles 20.

What you can conclude

• Days marked as spike events need investigation — something drove an unusual volume of work into the queue on that day.
• Spikes that cluster around the same calendar pattern (always Mondays, always end of month) may be predictable and plannable — not emergencies.
• A spike dominated by new creations is a demand shock. A spike dominated by reopened issues is a quality failure. Both require different responses.

How this chart works

Day-by-day control chart showing backlog inflow count alongside a 14-day rolling mean and ±2σ control limits. Days where inflow exceeds the upper limit are marked as spike events.