Event Density Anomaly Detector(4.2.9)

Most weeks, the total volume of events across the portfolio fluctuates within a predictable range. When a week's total activity sits well outside that range, beyond the statistical control limits, something happened across the portfolio at the same time. That could be a major deployment, a regulatory deadline, a reorganization, or simply more people, and it is worth understanding which.

What you can conclude

• A week flagged as an anomaly is a week whose volume left the recent range. The question it raises is what drove activity across all projects at once.
• Consecutive flagged weeks show volume staying above the recent range. Whether that reflects pressure, growth, or a change in how work is recorded is the next question to ask.
• A portfolio that stays within the control limits is moving within its recent range. That is a statement about volume, not about quality or governance.

How this chart works

Control chart showing portfolio-wide weekly event count with a 14-week rolling mean and plus-or-minus two-standard-deviation control limits. Weeks exceeding the upper control limit are marked. The band is computed from recent volume in absolute event counts, so it moves when the portfolio itself changes: onboarding projects, adding contributors, or retiring a project shifts the mean, and the weeks following such a change can fall outside the limits for that reason alone. Read a flagged week against what changed in the organization before reading it as a signal.