Portfolio Risk Composite Score Trend(4.2.5)

A single risk score tells you where things stand today. A trend line tells you where they're heading. This visual shows the composite risk score for each project over time so you can see whether projects are drifting toward the escalation threshold or moving away from it — and make governance decisions based on trajectory, not just current state.

What you can conclude

• A project whose score is rising consistently week over week is moving toward the threshold; a reviewer could ask what is driving the rise.
• A project whose score drops sharply after a specific week changed in that week; the chart shows when, not why.
• Multiple projects converging toward the threshold simultaneously may indicate a shared trigger — a recent change, a new process, or an external pressure affecting all teams.

How this chart works

Multi-line time series showing composite risk score per project per week. A 70-point threshold line marks the escalation boundary. Score is computed from three weighted inputs: the share of completions that entered a done status straight from a to-do status (weight 30), the share of status transitions that reopened an issue (weight 25), and an event-volume term (weight 25). The weighted sum is expressed as a share of the weight the week could actually measure, so the scale is 0 to 100 whether two or three inputs were available; a week without completions is scored on its reopen share and event volume alone, which then carry the whole weight. Both shares count each status transition once, however many times the connector delivered the same change. Each is rated only where the week carries enough of its own evidence to support it—five status transitions for the reopen share, five completions for the bypass share—because below those counts a single event moves a share by tens of points; a week that can rate neither is left unscored. A week that can measure fewer than two of the three is left unscored and breaks the line rather than being drawn near zero.

The week in progress is shown at its value so far. Because the week is not yet complete, it covers only the events recorded so far and can move in either direction as the week closes.