Projected Weekly Load per Project(4.3.9)

Understanding which projects are generating the most operational activity helps leadership allocate support resources, set realistic expectations for team capacity, and identify projects that may be growing their footprint faster than anticipated. This visual shows actual load alongside a 2-week forward projection based on the recent trend.

What you can conclude

• A project whose projected load is significantly higher than its recent actuals has a rising recent trend; a reviewer could ask whether the team expects that demand.
• Projects whose projection sits close to their recent actuals have a flat recent trend, or too little history to measure one.
• A portfolio where load is increasingly concentrated in one or two projects shows where recorded activity is moving; the question is whether the other projects are winding down by plan.
• A project with no completed week in the selected range is not listed rather than shown at zero, because no load was measured for it — not because none occurred.

How this chart works

Grouped bar chart showing actual 4-week average weekly event load per project alongside a 2-week forward projection based on the rolling average trend. Use the project filter to focus on specific teams.

Each project contributes one pair of bars, read from the most recent week that project completed.

This chart reads each project's latest complete week and does not count the week in progress. Projects report in different weeks, so the chart names no single week.

The projection starts from the 4-week average and adds the recent trend: the average weekly change in that average over the previous four weeks. The trend is carried two weeks ahead and damped by a factor of 0.8 per week ahead, so a recent swing is not extrapolated at full strength. The projection never falls below half the 4-week average, so one heavy week followed by a quiet stretch cannot drive it to zero. A projection sitting exactly at half the average is that floor: the trend points lower still, which reads as a steep decline rather than as a measured forecast. Until a project has two full four-week averages to compare, which takes eight weeks of recorded history, the trend is not measured and its projection equals its 4-week average. Until a project has four complete weeks of history, its 4-week average covers the weeks there are (a week in which the site sent nothing at all is not counted); that bar is drawn hollow, and its tooltip says how many weeks it covers.

A project with events in fewer than 3 of its last 4 complete weeks shows no projection, drawn as a dashed outline: there is not enough signal to project from, and that absence is not a projection of zero.